Solidcore Resources plc
Kazakhstan gold producer, the former Polymetal. Kyzyl's refractory concentrate still relies on third-party and Russian POX toll treatment until its own Ertis POX plant is commissioned, targeted for end-2026.
Report of 2 Oct 2026 (latest), confidence medium. 2 versions ▾
- Listing
- AIX: GB_SCC
- Main project
- Kyzyl
- Location
- Abai Region, Kazakhstan
- Commodities
- Gold
- Stage
- Production
- Tier
- Tier 2
- Website
- www.solidcore-resources.com
Ertis POX commissions in ~3 months, H2 guidance needs ~330 koz, and the tender closes 12 Oct 2026, so the window to embed ramp-up and cost programmes is this quarter.
Lead with the producer turnaround playbook: AISC and unit-cost reduction, availability, cycle times, recovery and contractor management, expressed as value at stake in US$/yr (~US$59m, ~US$110/oz).
Overlay the construction/ramp-up playbook for Ertis POX. That is the most time-critical lever, and every month of faster ramp to design pulls concentrate off the toll route.
Commercially, this is a cash-rich producer mid-buyback, so we keep cash dominant (85/15). We still tie a 30% at-risk tranche to KPIs to signal confidence to a technically strong ex-Polymetal team.
The stakeholder route runs through the US$600m Ertis syndicate and KfW IPEX-Bank, which carry the ramp-up risk after the tender.
Company summary
Solidcore Resources plc is listed on the Astana International Exchange as GB_SCC; the AIX market page shows CORE [43]. It is the renamed Polymetal [22]. It sold its Russian assets in 2024 after the Russian business was placed under US sanctions [23]. The remaining business is Kazakhstan-focused. The flagship is Kyzyl in the Abai Region, a high-grade refractory gold operation that produces flotation concentrate. It is mined by open pit and is progressively moving underground [33][35]. The Varvara processing complex sits alongside it [17]. Group ore reserves are about 11.9 Moz GE [17].
Kyzyl concentrate needs pressure oxidation, which Solidcore does not yet own. In H1 2025, sanctions-related delays at the Amursk POX plant in Russia caused about 200 koz of gold in concentrate to accumulate [16][23]. Group production fell to 395 koz GE in FY2025, 6% below revised guidance of 420 koz and well below the original 470 koz [3][16]. Batches were rerouted to China and to a Kazakh smelter (Kazakhmys) [16][35].
The 2026 recovery has been financial as much as operational. H1 2026 revenue was US$972m, adjusted EBITDA US$641m and net cash US$648m [1]. Guidance of about 540 koz GE was reiterated, at TCC of US$1,350–1,550/oz, AISC of US$1,850–2,050/oz and capex of about US$510m [21][32].
The in-house fix is the Ertis POX plant. US$600m of bank funding is secured, equipment is shipping, state expertise is approved, and commissioning is targeted for end-2026 [29]. A separate US$100m KfW IPEX-Bank facility was signed in September 2026 [40]. In parallel, the Board launched a US$1.2bn on-market tender for up to 102.9m shares (23.2% of capital) at US$11.66 [34][37]. Other initiatives are a 17 MW solar plant at Kyzyl by end-2027 [29] and an in-house geological laboratory [36].
Key projects
4| Project | Location | Stage | Resource or reserve |
|---|---|---|---|
Kyzyl Gold (refractory concentrate) | Abai Region, Kazakhstan | Producing; open pit transitioning progressively to underground | Group ore reserves ~11.9 Moz GE (2025 reporting cycle, company disclosure, reporting code not stated in research) [17]. A secondary broker source cites Kyzyl P&P ~10 Moz Au, ~2.4 Mt/yr throughput [19]; not verified against a competent-person report. FY2025: 2.442 Mt ore mined at 5.0 g/t and 2.470 Mt processed at 4.9 g/t; 234 koz Au produced (264 koz GE); mine-level AISC US$1,000/oz [2][8]. H1 2026 production was 122 koz (Q1 81 koz, Q2 41 koz) [11][15]. Q1 2026 mine-level output was down 8% on a planned lower grade as mining shifts underground [35]. Concentrate is toll-treated (Amursk POX, China, Kazakhmys) pending Ertis [16][35]. |
Varvara Gold equivalent | Kazakhstan | Producing processing complex | Not disclosed separately in research FY2025 AISC US$2,035/oz, roughly double Kyzyl's US$1,000/oz; this is the group's high-cost tail [2]. Processes Varvara ore and, subject to availability, Kyzyl concentrate. |
Ertis POX Gold (pressure oxidation of Kyzyl concentrate) | Kazakhstan | Construction; commissioning targeted end-2026 | N/A (processing plant) US$600m funded by an international bank syndicate. Main process equipment shipping; state construction expertise positive (June 2026) [29]. One March 2026 report cited a 2028 start [23], which conflicts with the end-2026 commissioning date. Design capacity and recovery not disclosed. |
Kyzyl 17 MW solar plant Power | Kyzyl, Kazakhstan | Engineering / pre-construction | N/A Commissioning expected by end-2027 [29]. |
What changed since the previous report
12 changesTender offer now confirmed in detail: up to 102.9m shares (23.2% of capital) at US$11.66, offer period 9 Sep–12 Oct 2026 [34][37]. The previous report carried it as an unverified wire headline.
Financing firmed up: US$600m Ertis POX syndicate funding secured (previously 'negotiating up to US$600–700m, terms unconfirmed') plus a new US$100m KfW IPEX-Bank facility dated 2 Sep 2026 [29][40].
FY2025 AISC now confirmed by segment from company results: group US$1,532, Kyzyl US$1,000, Varvara US$2,035/oz [2]. YTD 2026 AISC of US$1,912/oz added [1]. Varvara added as a distinct high-cost issue and value lever.
Market cap changed from an indicative US$3.5bn to ~US$5.17bn implied at the tender price (~443.5m implied shares). This is still not a market close.
New issue added: possible renewed concentrate build (H1 mine-level 267 koz vs 210 koz reported; Q2 145 vs 86 koz), with Q2 net cash down US$51m.
Reinterpreted the Q2 operating table as most likely group-level, not Kyzyl only (1.584 Mt processed per quarter vs Kyzyl's ~0.62 Mt run-rate). The ~19.5:1 strip is therefore a group figure.
The 'eastern-pit depletion' framing was replaced with the disclosed planned grade decline during the underground transition (Q1 mine-level output −8%) [35].
Previous issue 'H2 material-movement catch-up' was folded into the waste-movement/strip issue; the current research does not support the earlier volume-catch-up arithmetic.
Ertis commissioning date conflict flagged: end-2026 [29] vs 2028 [23].
Kazakhstan fiscal change quantified (~US$15m/yr at FY2025 revenue from 2028).
New 9 Sep 2026 trigger: in-house geological laboratory launched [36].
Full proposal, value-at-stake, fee structure and equity compliance added for AIX.
Issues
Most severe first- CriticalOperational
Reported ounces hostage to third-party and Russian POX toll treatment until Ertis is running
Kyzyl concentrate cannot be turned into doré without pressure oxidation, which Solidcore does not yet own. The H1 2025 Amursk delays showed that a sanctions-permitted route can still fail commercially. The result was a 51% production drop, ~200 koz stranded in inventory and a guidance miss. Our services cannot remove the sanctions risk; the operational fix is a fast, stable Ertis POX ramp-up.
- HighTechnicalAnalyst inference
Ertis POX commissioning at end-2026: autoclave ramp-up risk with no disclosed design capacity, recovery or ramp curve
Greenfield POX plants are notoriously slow to reach design availability and recovery. Common causes are autoclave and oxygen-plant reliability, scaling, agitator and valve wear, acid/limestone balance and operator inexperience. Every month of slow ramp keeps concentrate on the toll route or in inventory. Sources also conflict: one cites a 2028 start [23], the latest says end-2026 [29]. Maintenance systems, critical spares and operator readiness need to be in place before first feed.
- HighOperationalAnalyst inference
H2 2026 guidance delivery: ~330 koz needed vs 210 koz in H1, after a sequential Q2 drop
To hit ~540 koz GE, H2 must deliver about 330 koz, 57% more than H1. Q2 was weaker than Q1 at group level (86 vs 125 koz) and at Kyzyl (41 vs 81 koz). Delivery depends on toll throughput and on mine-plan attainment at Kyzyl and Varvara. After the 2025 miss, a second miss would hit guidance credibility just as the company moves to lender-funded growth.
- HighOperationalAnalyst inference
Possible renewed concentrate build in H1 2026: mine-level output well ahead of reported production
Mine-level output exceeded reported production by ~57 koz GE in H1, and by ~59 koz in Q2 alone. Part of that gap is POX/smelter recovery loss and accounting boundaries. Even allowing ~10% for losses, ~30 koz appears to have been added to stock. At ~US$4,500/oz that is ~US$135m of working capital, consistent with Q2's US$51m net cash decline. This points to downstream capacity, not the mine, still being the constraint.
- HighOperational
Unit-cost inflation: AISC guided ~27% above FY2025, with a high-cost Varvara tail
Some of the cost increase is uncontrollable: price-linked mining tax and inflation. But Varvara's AISC is twice Kyzyl's, and the open pits move very large waste volumes. Controllable mining $/t, processing $/t and maintenance costs are not disclosed, so nobody outside can tell how much of the increase is fixable. This is the classic producer turnaround territory.
- MediumOperationalAnalyst inference
Heavy waste movement: implied group Q2 strip ratio ~19.5:1
25.4 Mt of waste was moved in Q2 against 1.304 Mt of ore. Ore processed in Q2 (1.584 Mt) is far above Kyzyl's FY2025 run-rate (~0.62 Mt/quarter), so this table is very likely group-level, not Kyzyl only. Annualised, that is ~100 Mt of material. Load & haul cycle time, payload, availability and drill & blast compliance are therefore among the biggest controllable cost lines. Waste fell 16% y/y; whether that reflects plan or under-stripping is unknown.
- MediumOperationalAnalyst inference
Kyzyl open-pit to underground transition: lower grade now, readiness risk later
Q1 mine-level output fell 8% on planned lower grade as Kyzyl moves underground. Underground ramp-up needs development metres, a new fleet, maintenance strategy and a different skill base. Delays would affect grade and production precisely as Ertis needs a steady concentrate feed.
- MediumFundingAnalyst inference
US$1.2bn tender plus ~US$510m capex shifts the company to lender-funded growth
Netting the tender against H1 net cash implies a move from net cash to net debt (our estimate ~US$0.5bn before H2 cash flow). Meanwhile Ertis, Kyzyl underground and solar are funded in parallel. The capital structure is sound, but operating delivery now underwrites both the lenders and the post-tender equity story.
- LowPermitting
Kazakhstan fiscal creep: socio-economic contribution becomes 1% of income from 2028
The contribution becomes revenue-linked. At FY2025 revenue of ~US$1.5bn it would be ~US$15m/yr, against a previously fixed (undisclosed) amount. Combined with the price-linked mining tax, more of the gold price upside goes to the state, which raises the value of controllable cost savings.
- LowOther
Thin and inconsistent public operating KPIs
Equipment availability, unit costs per tonne, recovery, owner/contractor split, fleet, safety and a competent-person reserve statement are not publicly disclosed. Guidance splits are inconsistent: Kyzyl 2026 production is cited as ~370 koz in [38] and ~170 koz in [8][32]. Our diagnostic must build the baseline from site data.
Financial position
Statements as of 30 June 2026 (H1 2026 net cash). Gross cash and debt detail as at 31 December 2025.- Market cap
- $5.17B
- Cash
- $731.0M
- Debt
- $267.0M
- Quarterly burn
- —
- Runway
- —
- Going concern
- Not flagged
~443.5m implied (tender for up to 102.9m shares = 23.2% of share capital [34][37]). This would fall to ~340.6m if the tender is fully taken up and the shares are cancelled. Confirm from the H1 2026 share-capital note.
US$100m KfW IPEX-Bank credit facility, 2 Sep 2026 [40]. US$600m Ertis POX funding secured from an international bank syndicate, reported 31 Jul 2026 [29]. No equity raise; the major capital-markets event is a US$1.2bn on-market tender offer at US$11.66/share (offer period 9 Sep–12 Oct 2026) [34][37].
Solidcore is highly cash-generative. Net cash moved from US$464m at YE2025 to US$699m at Q1 and US$648m at H1 2026 [2][11][15]. H1 2026 revenue was US$972m, adjusted EBITDA US$641m and reported net earnings US$453m [1]. FY2025 operating cash flow was US$603m and free cash flow ~US$348m [2][9].
YE2025 gross debt was US$267m at an average 5.7% cost, with US$105m maturing in 2026 [2][3]. On top of that sit the US$600m Ertis syndicate and the US$100m KfW facility; tenor, covenants and security are undisclosed [29][40].
The big swing is the US$1.2bn tender. A simple netting against H1 net cash of US$648m implies ~US$550m of net debt before H2 cash flow and before Ertis drawdowns. This is our inference, not a disclosed figure. Even so, the balance sheet will move from a cash cushion to lender-funded growth, with capex of ~US$510m in 2026 [21].
The Q2 net cash decline of US$51m coincided with reported production (86 koz) running well below mine-level output (145 koz GE). That pattern is consistent with a working-capital build in concentrate (inferred) [15][29].
Cost pressure is real:
- FY2025 TCC rose 17% to US$1,138/oz [3].
- 2026 AISC guidance midpoint of US$1,950 is ~27% above FY2025 group AISC of US$1,532 [2][32].
- Year-to-date AISC is US$1,912/oz [1].
- Each US$50/oz of AISC is ~US$27m/yr at 540 koz.
No going-concern language was identified, but the auditor wording was not reviewed.
All figures as reported in USD. Implied realised gold price of ~US$4,500/oz is derived: Q2 2026 revenue US$369m ÷ ~82 koz GE sold [15][31]. Market cap is implied at the tender price (US$11.66 × ~443.5m implied shares). It is not a market close.
Share price
No market data was found for this listing.
Peer benchmark
Unknown quartile on costOn FY2025 numbers, group AISC (US$1,532) was in line with AltynGold (US$1,562). Kyzyl at US$1,000/oz is clearly low-cost, and Varvara at US$2,035 is high-cost. With only one listed peer, no industry cost curve and 2026 group guidance up ~27% to a US$1,950 midpoint, we cannot place Solidcore in a quartile honestly. Directionally, Kyzyl looks low-cost, while the group is drifting up the curve on mining tax, inflation and Varvara.
| Company | Production | AISC US$ | Head grade | Recovery | Strip | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Solidcore: Kyzyl (segment) AIX: GB_SCC (this company) | 234 koz Au / 264 koz GE (FY2025) | 1,000 | 4.9 g/t processed (5.0 g/t mined), FY2025 | — | — | — |
Solidcore Resources plc (group) AIX: GB_SCC (this company) | 395 koz GE (FY2025); 2026 guidance ~540 koz GE | 1,532 | Group Q2 2026 processed 3.2 g/t GE | — | 19.5 | $5.17B |
AltynGold plc LSE: AYG | Not available | 1,562 | Not available | — | — | — |
Solidcore: Varvara (segment) AIX: GB_SCC (this company) | ~131 koz GE implied (FY2025, group less Kyzyl) | 2,035 | Not disclosed | — | — | — |
Kazakhstan gold producers with FY2025 disclosure. Only AltynGold (LSE: AYG) offers a usable listed comparison, and only on AISC. Solidcore is shown at group and segment level. Data period FY2025 [2][8][44]. Other Central Asian producers lack consistent disclosure.
Filings
10| Date | Type | Filing and takeaway | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Half-year report | Half-year report for the six months ended 30 June 2026 Revenue US$972m, adj. EBITDA US$641m, net cash US$648m. Guidance reiterated: 540 koz GE, TCC US$1,350–1,550, AISC US$1,850–2,050, capex ~US$510m. H1 TCC US$1,435/oz. | [21] |
| 2026-09-08 | Corporate action announcement | Proposed US$1.2bn on-market tender offer Up to 102.9m shares (23.2% of capital) at US$11.66/share, offer period 9 Sep–12 Oct 2026. This removes the cash cushion and puts more weight on operating delivery and lender-funded capex. | [34] |
| 2026-09-02 | Financing announcement | US$100m credit facility from KfW IPEX-Bank Additional bank debt; terms undisclosed. Adds a second lender group with an interest in Ertis/operations performance. | [40] |
| 2026-07-31 | Quarterly production report | Q2 2026 production results Group 86 koz GE (Q1: 125 koz); Kyzyl 41 koz (Q1: 81 koz). Mine-level output 145 koz GE. Ertis POX US$600m secured, commissioning end-2026. Waste mined 25.4 Mt vs 1.304 Mt open-pit ore. | [29] |
| 2026-06-01 | Contract amendment (subsoil use) | Amendment to Kyzyl Subsoil Use Contract From 2028 the socio-economic contribution becomes 1% of total annual income (minimum US$2m), replacing a fixed amount. That is ~US$15m/yr at FY2025 revenue (inferred). Exact day not given; month only. | [21] |
| 2026-05-04 | Quarterly production report | Q1 2026 production results 125 koz GE (+84% y/y) on POX recovery and start of Kazakhmys processing. Mine-level output 123 koz (−8%) on planned lower grade during the underground shift. | [35] |
| 2026-03-31 | Annual report | Integrated Annual Report 2025 Published. Full contents (reserves, safety, governance) not retrieved. | [6] |
| 2026-03-19 | Annual results | Financial results for the year ended 31 December 2025 395 koz GE (−19%), 6% below revised 420 koz guidance. TCC US$1,138/oz (+17%). Group AISC US$1,532; Kyzyl US$1,000; Varvara US$2,035. Cash US$731m, debt US$267m. | [2] |
| 2026-01-30 | Quarterly production report | Q4 and FY 2025 production results Q4 Kyzyl 101 koz after Amursk restart. FY Kyzyl 234 koz. 2026 guidance ~540 koz GE, mostly from inventory release. | [8] |
| 2025-09-11 | Half-year report | Half-year report for the six months ended 30 June 2025 H1 2025 production 123 koz (−51%). ~200 koz gold in concentrate stranded by sanctions-related Amursk POX delays. Guidance cut from 470 to 420 koz. | [16] |
Value at stake
Estimates from public data, validated in the diagnosticFirst-year value at stake is ~US$59.2m. That is equivalent to ~US$110/oz on 540 koz, or about a quarter of the ~US$418/oz AISC increase from FY2025 (US$1,532) to the 2026 guidance midpoint (US$1,950).
The estimates are deliberately conservative but low-to-medium confidence. Unit costs, availability and recovery are not public. The waste and Varvara levers may partly overlap if Varvara pits are in the waste figure, and the diagnostic will net them.
We excluded one-off working-capital release from concentrate inventory (~30 koz × US$4,500 ≈ US$135m, inferred) because it is not annual.
The proposed US$3.6m fee is ~6.1% of first-year value, below our 10–15% norm.
| Lever | How it is calculated | US$ / year | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
Open-pit load & haul / drill & blast: −US$0.10/t moved Haul cycle time, payload, queue and dispatch management, fleet availability, blast pattern compliance and fragmentation | 25.4 Mt waste (Q2 2026) × 4 = 101.6 Mt/yr × US$0.10/t = US$10.16m. Excludes ore tonnes, so conservative. $/t baseline not disclosed. | $10.2M | Medium |
Varvara controllable unit cost: −US$75/oz Unit-cost management, plant OEE, contractor management, energy and maintenance practices | Varvara ~131 koz GE (395 koz group − 264 koz GE Kyzyl, FY2025) × US$75/oz = US$9.83m. US$75 is ~3.7% of US$2,035/oz AISC. | $9.8M | Low |
Ertis POX recovery ramp: +1 pt recovery reached earlier/sustained Autoclave availability, maintenance from day one, process control and control-room routines, recovery root-cause management | 370 koz Kyzyl 2026 guidance basis [38] × 1% × ~US$4,500/oz implied realised price (Q2 revenue US$369m ÷ ~82 koz sold) = US$16.65m. Gross of mining tax. | $16.6M | Low |
Kyzyl flotation recovery +0.5 pt Grind (P80) control, reagent and flotation circuit stability, ore blending during the underground transition | FY2025 contained gold 2.470 Mt × 4.9 g/t ÷ 31.1035 = ~389 koz × 0.5% = ~1.95 koz × US$4,500 = US$8.75m | $8.8M | Low |
Mine-plan attainment +1% of guided ounces Short Interval Control, 24-hour planning, Mine Scheduler, maintenance ready-backlog | 540 koz × 1% = 5.4 koz × (US$4,500 realised − US$1,950 AISC midpoint = US$2,550/oz margin) = US$13.77m | $13.8M | Medium |
Proposal
Ertis POX ramp-up and open-pit/Varvara unit-cost programme: deliver H2 2026 and bend AISC back toward FY2025
Solidcore's mines are producing. The binding constraints are downstream processing and cost. H1 2026 mine-level output was 267 koz GE but reported production 210 koz. To hit 540 koz, H2 needs ~330 koz. AISC is guided at US$1,850–2,050/oz versus US$1,532 in FY2025, and Varvara ran at US$2,035/oz.
The structural fix, Ertis POX, commissions at end-2026, and its ramp-up speed will set 2027 cash flow. Meanwhile ~100 Mt/yr of open-pit material movement and the Kyzyl underground transition determine controllable unit costs.
YCP Unison proposes a 6-week fixed-fee diagnostic across Ertis readiness, Kyzyl open pit and Varvara. This is followed by 7–9 months of on-site implementation in three areas:
- Maintenance and recovery-ramp systems at Ertis from first feed.
- Short-interval control, load & haul and drill & blast at Kyzyl.
- A unit-cost and OEE programme at Varvara.
We estimate first-year value at stake at ~US$59m, equivalent to ~US$110/oz on 540 koz. Our fee is US$3.6m (~6% of that value), 85% cash and 15% equity. 30% of the fee is at risk against KPIs baselined in the diagnostic.
Problems we solve
- Ertis POX commissioning at end-2026: autoclave ramp-up risk and continued toll dependence until it is stable
- H2 2026 guidance delivery (~330 koz needed vs 210 koz in H1) and mine-plan attainment
- Possible renewed concentrate build (mine-level 267 koz vs 210 koz reported in H1)
- Unit-cost inflation: AISC guidance midpoint US$1,950 vs US$1,532 in FY2025
- Varvara high-cost operation (US$2,035/oz AISC)
- Heavy open-pit waste movement (~19.5:1 implied Q2 strip) and load & haul cost
- Kyzyl open-pit to underground transition readiness
Scope of work
5 workstreams| Workstream | What we do | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Diagnostic and baseline | Six weeks on site at Kyzyl, Varvara and Ertis. Outputs:
| Weeks 1–6 (mid-Oct to end-Nov 2026) |
| 2. Ertis POX readiness and ramp-up acceleration | Maintenance and plant management from day one:
| Dec 2026 – Jun 2027 |
| 3. Kyzyl open pit: mine-plan attainment, load & haul, drill & blast | Tools: Short Interval Control for drill & blast, the 24-hour plan tool and Mine Scheduler. Load & haul work covers:
Maintenance work covers wrench time and ready backlog to lift fleet availability. The aim is to secure H2 2026 and 2027 volumes at lower $/t. | Nov 2026 – May 2027 |
| 4. Varvara unit-cost and plant performance | Unit-cost management by line. Contractor management, plant OEE, P80 and recovery improvement, shutdown management and energy optimisation. Target: a sustainable controllable-cost reduction against the FY2025 US$2,035/oz AISC. | Jan – Jun 2027 |
| 5. Kyzyl underground transition readiness | Work covers:
| Feb – Jul 2027 |
Commercial terms
$3.6MUS$3.06m cash in three parts:
- US$450k fixed-fee diagnostic.
- US$2.07m monthly implementation retainer over ~8 months.
- US$540k cash success fee payable on KPI achievement.
US$540k in ordinary shares (~46,300 shares at the US$11.66 tender reference; final price to be the 20-day VWAP after tender settlement). Two KPI-linked tranches of US$270k:
- Tranche A: Ertis POX reaching the agreed % of design throughput and recovery on schedule.
- Tranche B: open-pit controllable $/t and Varvara controllable unit-cost targets met over a full quarter.
Preferably delivered from treasury shares acquired in the tender, if held rather than cancelled. Otherwise new shares under existing allotment authority. 12-month contractual lock-up.
The company is cash-rich and mid-buyback, so we lean heavily to cash (85/15) rather than our 60/40 default. The small equity piece aligns us with post-tender holders without meaningful dilution.
The at-risk share is 30% of the total fee: US$540k cash success fee plus US$540k equity. Fee is ~6.1% of the ~US$59m first-year value at stake. That is deliberately below our 10–15% norm, reflecting the size of the value pool, low-to-medium data confidence and a first engagement.
Scope is Kazakhstan assets only. It excludes any work on Russian toll-processing arrangements, subject to YCP Group sanctions/KYC clearance.
Results-linked fees
30% of the fee depends on resultsThe total fee is US$3.6m, 85% cash and 15% equity:
- US$450k fixed-fee cash diagnostic.
- US$2.07m cash implementation retainer.
- US$1.08m (30%) at risk: US$540k cash success fee plus US$540k equity in two KPI-vested tranches.
All baselines are set jointly in the diagnostic, because unit-cost, availability and recovery data are not public. Uncontrollable items (gold-price-linked mining tax, FX, sanctions-related toll disruptions) are excluded from KPI measurement.
| Phase | Duration | Fee | Paid in | Paid or vests when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1: Diagnostic (Kyzyl, Varvara, Ertis readiness) | 6 weeks | $450K | Cash | Fixed fee: 50% on mobilisation, 50% on diagnostic read-out with KPI baselines |
| Phase 2: Implementation retainer | ~8 months (Dec 2026 – Jul 2027) | $2.1M | Cash | Monthly in arrears on delivery of agreed workplan milestones |
| Phase 2: Cash success fee | Measured at month 6 and month 9 | $540K | Cash | Payable pro rata on achieving fee-linked KPIs (open-pit $/t, fleet availability, mine-plan attainment) vs diagnostic baselines over a full quarter |
| Equity tranche A: Ertis ramp-up | Vests ~Q2 2027 | $270K | Equity | Ertis POX reaches the agreed % of design throughput and recovery by the agreed month, vs the company's ramp-up curve |
| Equity tranche B: unit costs | Vests ~Q3 2027 | $270K | Equity | Varvara controllable unit cost and open-pit $/t targets met for a full quarter |
| KPI | Baseline | Target | Measured by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ertis POX throughput and recovery vs design Linked to fee | Company commissioning/ramp-up curve (design capacity and recovery not disclosed; to be set in diagnostic) | Reach the agreed % of design throughput and design recovery at least 1–2 months ahead of the company ramp curve | Plant metallurgical accounting and DCS data, monthly |
| Open-pit controllable mining cost per tonne moved Linked to fee | 3-month pre-implementation average from the cost ledger (group waste 25.4 Mt in Q2 2026) | −US$0.10/t sustained for a full quarter | Site cost ledger ÷ surveyed tonnes moved, quarterly |
| Primary load & haul fleet physical availability Linked to fee | Set from equipment-level data in diagnostic | +5 percentage points vs baseline | FMS/dispatch and CMMS data, monthly |
| Mine-plan attainment (ore tonnes and grade vs monthly plan) Linked to fee | Set in diagnostic (H1 2026 group production 210 koz vs 540 koz FY guidance) | ≥95% monthly attainment | Mine plan vs survey and grade-control reconciliation, monthly |
| Varvara controllable AISC component Linked to fee | FY2025 AISC US$2,035/oz; controllable lines set in diagnostic | −US$75/oz on controllable lines (ex price-linked mining tax and FX) | Segment cost reporting, quarterly |
| Group AISC | YTD 2026 US$1,912/oz [1]; FY2025 US$1,532/oz | Within the 2026 guidance range; 2027 reduction on controllable lines | Company reported AISC, quarterly |
Why now and next steps
- Ertis POX commissions at end-2026, about three months away. Maintenance systems, spares and operator routines have to be in place before first feed, not after the first unplanned autoclave shutdown.
- H2 must deliver ~330 koz to hold the reiterated 540 koz guidance after a 2025 miss.
- The US$1.2bn tender closes 12 Oct 2026, moving the company from net cash to lender-funded capex. Operating delivery now underwrites both the US$600m syndicate, the KfW facility and the post-tender share price.
- 1.30-minute call with Vitaly Nesis and the COO to agree diagnostic focus (Ertis readiness, Kyzyl pit, Varvara)
- 2.NDA, and data request: fleet dispatch and maintenance data, $/t cost ledgers, plant recovery, Ertis commissioning plan and ramp curve
- 3.YCP Group sanctions/KYC clearance and confirmation of Kazakhstan-only scope
- 4.Site visit to Kyzyl and Ertis in late October 2026; diagnostic kickoff early November
- 5.Diagnostic read-out with value-at-stake netting and KPI baselines; implementation contract with at-risk terms
Decision-makers
In suggested order of approach| Order | Person | What they care about | How to approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Not identified (Chief Operating Officer) COO ExecutiveHigh influence | H2 2026 volumes, Ertis ramp-up, unit costs, underground transition | Operator-to-operator. Lead with the Ertis readiness gap checklist and the Kyzyl/Varvara $/t levers, and offer the fixed-fee diagnostic with KPIs set jointly. |
| 2 | Not identified (Ertis POX project director) Ertis POX project / commissioning lead Site OperationsHigh influence | Hitting commissioning and design throughput/recovery; a maintenance organisation ready at handover | Offer maintenance-from-day-one, critical spares and shutdown planning support alongside their EPC/vendor commissioning. Cite +134% crusher planned maintenance. |
| 3 | Not identified (Kyzyl site General Manager) Kyzyl site GM Site OperationsHigh influence | Plan attainment, fleet availability, underground development metres, grade control | SIC/24-hour planning and load & haul cycle-time work. Cite +84% availability / 310 drill hours and −15% haulage cycle time. |
| 4 | Vitaly Nesis Group CEO ExecutiveHigh influence | Guidance credibility after the 2025 miss, the post-tender equity story, Ertis delivery, AISC | Short email and call. Frame it as ~US$59m/yr (~US$110/oz) value at stake with a 30% at-risk fee and a Kazakhstan-only scope. |
| 5 | Not identified (CFO) CFO ExecutiveMedium influence | Cash flow post-tender, working capital in concentrate, lender relations, AISC guidance | Show the working-capital and AISC arithmetic, and the KPI-linked fee that protects value for money. |
| 6 | Not identified (Board chair / independent directors) Board BoardMedium influence | Capital allocation after the US$1.2bn tender; execution risk on Ertis and underground | Via the CEO. Offer an independent operational readiness review of Ertis as board assurance. |
| 7 | International bank syndicate (Ertis POX, US$600m) and KfW IPEX-Bank (US$100m) Lenders Lender StreamerMedium influence | Ertis completion and ramp-up to design; debt service from operating cash flow after the tender | Offer an independent ramp-up readiness and monitoring review they can rely on. Position it as complementary to their technical adviser. |
Stakeholder angles
Who else can push management to engageThey fund the plant whose ramp-up removes Solidcore's toll-processing risk. After the US$1.2bn tender, their cover depends more on operating cash flow.
An independent operational readiness and ramp-up plan for Ertis covers maintenance systems, spares, operator readiness and a recovery-ramp KPI tracker. It de-risks completion and early debt service and gives lenders a reason to encourage management to engage.
A new lender since 2 Sep 2026 with exposure to group operating performance.
Quarterly operational KPI reporting on availability, unit costs and plant OEE from our implementation would strengthen covenant headroom visibility. It also supports ESG/decarbonisation reporting, for example the 17 MW solar plant.
Non-tendering holders will own a larger share of a company that has moved from net cash to lender-funded growth.
Every US$50/oz of AISC is ~US$27m/yr. Delivering guidance and bending AISC back toward FY2025 is the cleanest route to re-rating after the tender.
Approved the US$1.2bn return while capex runs at ~US$510m/yr and Ertis commissions.
An independent, time-boxed diagnostic gives assurance on Ertis readiness and controllable cost levers before 2027 budget and guidance are set.
The socio-economic contribution becomes 1% of income from 2028; local workforce development matters for Ertis and underground.
Skills and workforce programmes for Ertis operators and the underground crews support local-content and social commitments.
Management and board
5 people- Vitaly NesisGroup Chief Executive Officer
- Not identified in researchChief Operating Officer
- Not identified in researchChief Financial Officer
- Not identified in researchKyzyl site General Manager
- Not identified in researchErtis POX project director
Trigger events
Why now- 2026-12-31Commissioning Rampup
Ertis POX commissioning targeted for end-2026. Operational readiness must be locked in during Q4 2026.[29]
- 2026-09-08Other
H1 report reiterates 540 koz GE guidance with only 210 koz delivered in H1, so ~330 koz is needed in H2 after a 2025 miss.[21]
- 2026-09-08Financing
US$1.2bn tender offer (offer period to 12 Oct 2026) moves the balance sheet from net cash toward net debt.[34]
- 2026-09-02Financing
US$100m KfW IPEX-Bank facility: a new lender with exposure to operating delivery.[40]
- 2026-07-31Financing
US$600m Ertis POX funding secured from an international bank syndicate; equipment shipping.[29]
- 2026-09-09Other
In-house geological laboratory launched, signalling investment in internal capability and data.[36]
- 2026-06-01Regulatory
Kyzyl subsoil contract amended: socio-economic contribution becomes 1% of income from 2028.[21]
- 2026-05-04Other
Q1 2026 mine-level output −8% on planned lower grade as Kyzyl shifts underground.[35]
- 2026-03-19Guidance Miss
FY2025 production 395 koz GE, 6% below revised 420 koz guidance (originally 470 koz).[10]
Recent news
8- 2026-09-09Solidcore launches its own geological laboratory[36]
- 2026-09-08Board proposes US$1.2bn on-market tender offer for up to 23.2% of shares at US$11.66[34]
- 2026-09-08H1 2026: revenue triples to US$972m; 540 koz guidance reiterated; net cash US$648m[21]
- 2026-09-02US$100m credit facility from KfW IPEX-Bank[40]
- 2026-07-31Q2 2026: 86 koz GE (+56% y/y); Ertis POX US$600m secured, commissioning end-2026[29]
- 2026-06-01Kyzyl subsoil-use contract amended: socio-economic contribution 1% of income from 2028[21]
- 2026-05-04Q1 2026: 125 koz GE (+84%); Kazakhmys smelter starts processing Kyzyl concentrate[35]
- 2026-03-19FY2025 results: 395 koz GE, 6% below revised guidance after Amursk POX delays[10]